LinkedIn on Friday, April 24, 2026

As you know, the Trump administration is required to refund the more than $166 billion in tariff revenues it collected, but which the Supreme Court has ruled to be illegal.  That’s a rough average of $500 per person.  Keep that number in mind.  If you’re a family of four, your household’s share would be $2000.

The problem is that the refunds are to be given back to the entity who paid the tariffs when the product to which the tariff applies first arrived in the United States.  That entity could be a consumer who ordered something online from a country President Trump decided to punish.  We pay the tariff, but the county selling the item could suffer from a reduction in demand for products it sells to America.  Much more likely, the tariff was paid by a retailer or wholesaler/distributor here in the United States who ordered whatever we’re talking about from the foreign seller of the product.

The question is, did the entity that paid the tariff eat it instead of raising its prices or did it pass all or a portion of the tariff along to its customers – and then what happened to the tariff after that, on its way to the ultimate consumer?  Needless to say, figuring that out so that the refund can go to the actual entities who paid all or part of the tariff is pretty much impossible.

So, our government has decided to choose the simplest alternative and give all $166 billion to the first receiving entity – regardless of how much of those billions were ultimately paid by you and me.  Or we could just pay everyone $500 per person.  It’s a rough, highly imperfect alternative but which, technically and politically, probably makes a whole lot more sense.

If you were President, what would you do?

-Les Cohen